The week's sharpest opinion and analysis   6th January 2012

The Year Ahead

Liz Jaques, Newsline Editor

Raymond Snoddy and Torin Douglas will give their views on the key media issues for the coming year (and a few light-hearted ones too) at Mediatel Group's Year Ahead event on 18th January. But for now, here are some thoughts and predictions for 2012…

We've just said goodbye to 2011 but 2012 is set to be quite a year. Apple's iTV is expected to launch in Q3, with the Steve Jobs biography claiming that he had "finally cracked" the code that will transform the digital living room experience with "the simplest user interface you could imagine".

And consumers can expect to get Google TV - by mid 2012 it will be in lots of hardware by default. Although in the UK, YouView is likely to take the limelight. The long-awaited connected TV product from partners including the BBC, ITV and BT should launch before the Olympics, with initial offers that could see it sell for less than £100. However, the real marketing push will be in full swing by next Christmas. Some commentators claim that YouView has already missed the boat; some think its success largely depends on BBC marketing.

The latest Celebrity Big Brother will no doubt boost ratings for Channel 5, though the Guardian predicts that Endemol could be up for sale this year "if it can finally agree the protracted restructuring of its €2.8 billion debt". ITV is also expected to be debt free by the end of the year, with a production acquisition likely. Greg Grimmer predicts that "all major UK TV companies will have a good revenue year as they monetise their online video content".

"TV streaming will finally get going in earnest, and in your living room," according to James Holland, launch editor, Republic Publishing. "From the BBC and ITV finally sorting out the rights to their content to the likes of LoveFilm (announced today) and Netflix (launching in the UK this year) syndication means smart TVs and VOD services finally have the content to match the technology.

"Add that to LG's plans to add e-commerce functionality to their smart TVs (they'll be demoing the first versions next week) and you'll be able to sit back, stream any show you like, and click a button on your remote to buy items shown in adverts or product placement. The holy grail of a true return path for TV might, just might, be around the corner in 2012."

Simon Andrews believes that this year "we'll see smart clients creating mobile experiences that are part two of TV ads - so the ads become invitations to participate on a mobile device."

Meanwhile, Sky says 2012 is the year of the tablet. Raymond Snoddy agrees: "You don't have to be Gypsy Rose Lee to predict that 2012 will be the year when the iPad moves far beyond the ranks of the early adopters and head towards the mainstream - with or without Premier League rights."

"It's a Sorrell year so we can predict the positive quadrennial effect on advertising revenue of the Olympics, the US Presidential election, the Euro football championship, with the Queen's Jubilee thrown in as an optional extra," Snoddy added in his first article of the year. ZenithOptimedia forecasts that global advertising revenues will reach $486 billion in 2012, up 4.7% on 2011. Meanwhile, PaidContent expects digital ad spend to account for more than one-fifth of all ad spend but more than half of all growth this year.

And with Facebook considering the largest Internet IPO on record and regulatory filings showing that at least 14 other Web-related companies are planning sales, the industry may raise $11 billion next year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In the press world (where we are still waiting for the full ramifications of the Leveson inquiry), the key success move from publishers will be their ability to deliver triple play subscription models - print, tablet and mobile - according to Grimmer. Meanwhile, Snoddy says we'll see the launch of the Sun on Sunday this year - "it would almost be rude not to". And in light of the Murdoch / Deng Twitter news this week, Grimmer claims that News Corp will buy a significant stake in the micro-blogging site and appoint Wendy Deng as a non exec… not a fake one!

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